Turkey vs. Paraguay: World Cup Odds, Player Props and a Prediction for the Group D Elimination Game in Santa Clara
Turkey opened as the narrowest of favorites over Paraguay for their Group D meeting in the San Francisco Bay Area on June 19, but with both teams beaten in their openers, the lines read as a market signal on a near coin flip rather than a comfortable favorite.
- Turkey is a slim moneyline favorite around +105, an implied 49 percent, with Paraguay out near +290 and the draw around +250, per sportsbook odds boards as of June 18.
- Both teams lost their openers, Turkey 2-0 to Australia and Paraguay 4-1 to the United States, so the loser here is all but eliminated and the winner climbs back into the Group D race.
- The total sits at 2.5 goals and splits the market, with Turkey’s attacking depth pointing Over and Paraguay’s instinct to slow the game pointing Under.
- Kerem Akturkoglu and Kenan Yildiz head Turkey’s anytime-scorer board, with Antonio Sanabria and Julio Enciso the names for Paraguay.
- California has no regulated sportsbook, so these lines are a market signal rather than a bet you can place in-state, the same gap that defines California gambling more broadly.
SANTA CLARA – Turkey and Paraguay arrive at the San Francisco Bay Area Stadium in the same hole. Turkey lost their opener 2-0 to Australia and Paraguay were beaten 4-1 by the United States, which leaves both on zero points while the U.S. and Australia have already banked three each. That makes their June 19 meeting close to an elimination game: the loser would need a near miracle on the final matchday, and the winner climbs right back into the race for a top-two finish.
The market makes Turkey a slight favorite. It is not sure this game has many goals in it, and it is not sure Turkey win at all.
Turkey vs Paraguay Odds and the Group D Picture
This is one of the tighter prices on the board. As of June 18, the three-way moneyline sat around +105 on Turkey, +290 on Paraguay and +250 on the draw, numbers that imply roughly 49 percent for Turkey, 26 percent for Paraguay and 29 percent for the draw before the California sportsbook margin is stripped out. Supercomputer models land in the same neighborhood, clustering near 45 percent for Turkey, 30 percent for the draw and 25 percent for Paraguay. The group around the match is already taking shape, with the United States and Australia in control on three points, so this is a fight to stay alive rather than a fight for first.
The case for Turkey is talent. Vincenzo Montella can call on Hakan Calhanoglu, Arda Guler, Kenan Yildiz and Kerem Akturkoglu, the deepest attacking group in the fixture, and Turkey scored 19 goals across qualifying. The catch is that all of that quality produced nothing against Australia, so the price is short on a team that has not yet shown its cutting edge at this tournament. Paraguay are the more wounded side after conceding four, but Gustavo Alfaro’s group is built to sit deep, stay compact and counter, which is exactly the profile that keeps a game close and a total low.
Representative odds by Bovada as of June 18 (prices vary by book)
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turkey | -0.5 (+105) | +105 | O 2.5 (+120) |
| Paraguay | +0.5 (-135) | +290 | U 2.5 (-120) |
(Three-way moneyline includes the draw at +250. Prices vary by book and move up to kickoff.)
Goal Totals and Both Teams to Score
The total is a genuine argument. Bookmakers set it at 2.5 goals, with the Over near +120 and the Under near -120, and the two sides of the bet are easy to see. The Over case is that Paraguay shipped four in their opener and that Turkey have the attackers to punish a defense that is chasing the game. The Under case is that Turkey could not score at all against Australia, that Paraguay will happily slow the match to a crawl, and that two nervous teams who cannot afford to lose often produce a cagey, low-event night. Both-teams-to-score is the related market, and it leans on whether Paraguay can muster anything going forward after a quiet attacking display in defeat.
Player Props: Akturkoglu, Yildiz and the Goalscorer Market
Turkey’s scorer board is led by Kerem Akturkoglu and Kenan Yildiz, the two who shared the goalscoring load in qualifying, with Akturkoglu the central striker in Montella’s 4-2-3-1 and Yildiz the wide threat, fitness permitting after a calf problem limited him in the opener. Hakan Calhanoglu is the one to note on the dead balls, since he takes the penalties and free kicks and a tight game can swing on a set piece. For a longer-priced flier, attacking midfielder Orkun Kokcu has been quoted around +400 to score, a reasonable dart given how often he arrives in the box. Paraguay’s threats are clearer than their price suggests: Antonio Sanabria leads the line and Julio Enciso, their most dangerous attacker, arrives with a handful of recent international goals. Exact anytime prices will move once the lineups land, so check them after the team news.
How the Match Sets Up
Montella is expected to keep a 4-2-3-1, with Calhanoglu dropping in as the deep playmaker behind Guler, Yildiz and Akturkoglu, though Yildiz’s fitness is the call to watch. Alfaro is likely to set Paraguay in a physical 4-4-2, with captain Gustavo Gomez and Omar Alderete anchoring the defense, Andres Cubas screening in midfield and Sanabria and Enciso carrying the threat. Treat both as projections until the lineups are confirmed. The decisive battle is in central midfield, where Calhanoglu will try to break Paraguay’s block and Cubas and Miguel Almiron will try to swarm him. The likely script is a Turkey side with more of the ball against a Paraguay side content to defend deep and strike on the break, with both teams carrying the tension of a game neither can afford to lose. Kickoff is 8 p.m. PT, 11 p.m. ET, at the San Francisco Bay Area Stadium, the tournament name for Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, the 49ers’ home that seats more than 68,000.
Best Bets
These are relative-value reads, not locks, and every line carries a built-in house edge, so the point is finding the spots that look mispriced rather than chasing a sure thing. Prices are as of June 18 and will move before kickoff, and because California has no legal sportsbook, treat these as a read on the game rather than a ticket you can place in-state.
Turkey moneyline, around +105. Plus money on the side with the clear talent edge in a near coin flip is the cleanest read on the board. Turkey have the deeper attack, Paraguay just conceded four, and Turkey have far more reason to push for the win.
Over 2.5 goals, around +120. The closest call on the card, not a lock. Paraguay’s defense leaked badly in the opener and both teams need a result, which argues for an open game, but Turkey’s blank against Australia and Paraguay’s slow-it-down instincts are the real risk to the bet. Treat it as a lean or leave it.
Orkun Kokcu anytime scorer, around +400. The value flier. He gets forward from midfield, Turkey should see plenty of the ball, and at this price he only has to find the net once. For the safer version, Akturkoglu is the favorite on the scorer board.
Two markets to be careful with. The draw at +250 is live, since two anxious sides can cancel each other out, but it is a messy bet when both teams have every reason to chase three points. And be wary of laying Turkey on a heavy handicap: they did not score in their opener, this is a tight pick’em, and a comfortable multi-goal Turkey win is one of the less likely outcomes.
On the match itself, the lean is a narrow Turkey win, something like 2-1, with Akturkoglu or Yildiz involved, but this is close to a coin flip and a low-scoring draw or a Paraguay smash-and-grab are both very much in play. Back Turkey lightly, expect tension, and do not talk yourself into a blowout.