- The Padres are +700 to win the series after two one-run losses in Milwaukee, compared with +150 before Game 1.
- Teams that trail 0-2 in a best-of-five series have gone on to win it 10 of 93 times, MLB.com reported.
- The Dodgers are -150 against the Braves after a 1-1 split at Dodger Stadium, an easing from -210 before the opener.
- San Diego is a -136 favorite in Game 3 at Petco Park, while the Dodgers are -110 and the Braves -109 in Atlanta.
SAN DIEGO – The San Diego Padres are +700 to win the National League Division Series after the Milwaukee Brewers won the first two games by one run each, while the Los Angeles Dodgers are -150 to beat the Atlanta Braves in a series tied 1-1. The NLDS odds have moved against both California clubs since before Game 1, lengthening San Diego from +150 and easing Los Angeles from -210.
The Padres Led Both Games And Lost Both
San Diego came into the series off a Wild Card sweep of the Chicago Cubs with its Game 1 starter undecided, then led both games in Milwaukee and lost them.
Saturday’s 3-2 loss turned on bases-loaded chances. Manny Machado grounded out with the bases loaded in the second inning, and Jackson Merrill flied out with them loaded in the fifth and again in the seventh. In the bottom half of that seventh, William Contreras took Adrian Morejon deep to break a 2-2 tie.
Ty France’s drive in the ninth hit a cable high above left field and was caught by Jackson Chourio for the second out, and the call stood on a Padres challenge under the ballpark’s ground rules, MLB.com reported.
Sunday’s 4-3 loss was costlier. The Padres took a 3-2 lead into the ninth with closer Mason Miller asked to get six outs, and he got five, with three walks and 40 pitches, before Chourio’s two-out single past second baseman Jake Cronenworth scored Christian Yelich and Sal Frelick. “I beat myself today,” Miller said. Milwaukee committed three errors, tying its season high, and still won.
Through two games the Padres are 3-for-18 with runners in scoring position and have left 20 runners on base, MLB.com reported. They have outhit the Brewers 14-12 and been outscored 7-5.
Snell’s Five Walks Gave Atlanta The Split
Los Angeles won Saturday 5-3 behind Tarik Skubal, who allowed one run and two hits over six innings with seven strikeouts, and home runs from Teoscar Hernández, Kyle Tucker and Max Muncy. Atlanta won Sunday 3-2 with a six-pitcher bullpen game. Ray Kerr opened with 2 2/3 scoreless innings, 21-year-old Didier Fuentes covered 3 2/3 and allowed only Muncy’s two-out homer in the ninth, and Raisel Iglesias got the last out for the save.
Blake Snell walked five in 3 2/3 innings, two of them in a first inning Atlanta scored on Mauricio Dubón’s two-out RBI single, and the Dodgers used six relievers behind him. Michael Harris II tripled in the fifth and doubled in a run in the seventh for Atlanta, MLB.com reported.
The split sends the series to Truist Park for Games 3 and 4, with Game 5, if needed, back at Dodger Stadium.
Series And Game 3 Odds
California has not legalized sports betting, so residents who wager on these games use offshore operators, and gambling in California stops short of a licensed baseball market. The board for the four clubs:
| Team | Series Status | Series Odds | Game 3 Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | Tied 1-1 | -150 | -110 |
| Atlanta Braves | Tied 1-1 | +125 | -109 |
| San Diego Padres | Trail 0-2 | +700 | -136 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | Lead 2-0 | -1100 | +113 |
MLB.com reported that teams down 0-2 in a best-of-five series have won 10 of 93 times, or 11 percent, and San Diego’s +700 breaks even at 12.5 percent. The price sits close to that base rate even though the Padres have outhit the Brewers.
The Brewers’ -1100 breaks even at 91.7 percent, in line with the 92 percent rate MLB.com cited for Division Series teams that won the first two games at home under the current format. Milwaukee’s 103-59 record was the best in the majors, and its +214 run differential is 173 runs better than San Diego’s +41.
The +700 prices three straight wins, the last at American Family Field, where Milwaukee went 55-26 this season. Tuesday is the only game with a posted price, and San Diego is the favorite.
The Padres went 51-30 at Petco Park in the regular season. Nick Pivetta (3-2, 2.86 ERA, and a 1.64 ERA in five starts since returning from a right elbow flexor strain in September, MLB.com reported) faces Dustin May, who carries a 5.65 ERA in 10 starts for Milwaukee but a 1.23 ERA in three starts against San Diego this year.
The Dodgers’ -150 breaks even at 60 percent, while MLB.com reported that Division Series teams that split on the road before heading home have taken the series 30 of 49 times, or 61 percent. History favors Atlanta and the market favors Los Angeles, whose +201 run differential is 85 runs better than the Braves’ +116. Atlanta still won five of six meetings in the regular season, including three one-run games at Truist Park.
Game 3 is priced as a pick’em, with Yoshinobu Yamamoto (14-9, 2.53 ERA, 0.87 WHIP) facing Chris Sale (14-9, 2.16 ERA), who threw a five-hit shutout against Los Angeles in a 1-0 win Aug. 27. The total of 6 is the lowest on either board and 2.5 runs below Game 1’s.
MLB.com reported that the Game 3 winner in a best-of-five series tied 1-1 has gone on to win it 48 of 67 times, or 71.6 percent. With Tuesday even, the Dodgers’ edge in the series price has to come from Games 4 and 5, the second of which is at Dodger Stadium.
Game 3 Is Tuesday, Game 5 Friday
Dodgers-Braves Game 3 is Tuesday at 3 p.m. PT at Truist Park, and Padres-Brewers follows at 6:30 p.m. PT at Petco Park, both on FS1. Game 4 is Wednesday at 3 p.m. PT in Atlanta and, if San Diego wins Tuesday, 7 p.m. PT at Petco Park. Game 5, if needed, is Friday at 1:30 p.m. PT in Milwaukee and 5 p.m. PT at Dodger Stadium.