- The Dodgers are -190 to win the NLCS, the Brewers are +135, and Game 1 is Sunday in Milwaukee.
- Los Angeles beat Atlanta 3-1 in the NLDS despite one hit in 20 plate appearances with runners in scoring position.
- ESPN’s simulation gives the Dodgers 51 percent to advance, well short of the 65.5 percent a -190 ticket needs to break even.
- The Padres were eliminated Wednesday, losing the NLDS 3-1 to a Brewers team that outscored them 13-10.
ATLANTA – The Los Angeles Dodgers, the two-time defending World Series champions, beat the Atlanta Braves 4-1 on Wednesday night at Truist Park, closing out the National League Division Series 3-1 and reaching a third straight National League Championship Series. Dodgers NLCS odds are -190 to beat the Milwaukee Brewers, who eliminated the San Diego Padres the same night by the same 3-1 margin.
Dodgers Won Without The Big Hit
Los Angeles scored 14 runs in the four games and collected one hit in 20 plate appearances with runners in scoring position, MLB.com reported. That hit was Andy Pages’ two-run single off Robert Suarez with the bases loaded in the seventh inning, which broke a 1-1 tie. Pages had no hits in the first two games of the series.
The rest of the offense came from the long ball and a defensive mistake. All three Dodgers runs in Game 3 scored on a Kiké Hernández two-run homer and a Freddie Freeman solo homer in the fourth inning. In Game 4, Mauricio Dubón dropped Max Muncy’s routine pop fly to tie the game in the second, and Muncy added a solo homer in the ninth.
Atlanta had less. The Braves hit .145 with a .501 OPS and scored eight runs in four games, going 1-for-23 with runners in scoring position, the second-lowest average on record for a postseason series with at least 20 at-bats in those spots, MLB.com reported. Yoshinobu Yamamoto struck out 10 in seven innings of Game 3, and four relievers covered the last 4 1/3 innings of Game 4 without a run behind Tyler Glasnow, who walked five in 4 2/3 innings.
A 1-for-20 stretch is too small a sample to say anything about the lineup, so the series reads as a pitching result more than a hitting one.
The Price Pays For Past Octobers
| Team | Series Odds | Implied Probability | ESPN Model |
|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | -190 | 65.5% | 51% |
| Milwaukee Brewers | +135 | 42.6% | 49% |
A Dodgers ticket at -190 risks $190 to win $100 and breaks even if Los Angeles wins the series 65.5 percent of the time. Milwaukee at +135 needs 42.6 percent. ESPN’s Bradford Doolittle, whose power-ratings formula runs 10,000 simulations, has the series at 51 percent Dodgers and 49 percent Brewers. That puts the Dodgers 14.5 points below their break-even number and the Brewers 6.4 points above theirs.
The 2026 evidence leans Milwaukee. The Brewers won 103 games to the Dodgers’ 100, posted a +214 run differential to the Dodgers’ +201, went 55-26 at home and hold home field for Games 1, 2, 6 and 7. They took three of four at Dodger Stadium from Aug. 13 to 16, winning 5-4, 4-1 and 6-2.
The case for -190 is October. The Dodgers swept Milwaukee in the 2025 NLCS, holding the Brewers to four runs in four games, ESPN noted, and they have won all three postseason meetings between the clubs, MLB.com reported. They are also 10-1 in their last 11 postseason road games, MLB.com said, which matters because the NLCS opens at American Family Field. Eleven games is a thin sample for a road trend, and the price asks Dodgers backers to weigh that history above a season Milwaukee won.
Skubal Draws Misiorowski In Game 1
The Dodgers, who landed Tarik Skubal from Detroit before the trade deadline, are likely to start the two-time Cy Young Award winner in Game 1 against Jacob Misiorowski, MLB.com reported, though manager Dave Roberts has not announced his rotation. Skubal went 12-7 with a 2.72 ERA and 186 strikeouts in 158 2/3 innings, including 5-2 with a 2.61 ERA in 10 starts for Los Angeles, and allowed one run on two hits over six innings in the NLDS opener.
Misiorowski has the better season line, 16-5 with a 1.80 ERA and 252 strikeouts in 174 2/3 innings. He held the Dodgers to one run on five hits in six innings of a 4-1 Brewers win on Aug. 15, and he will pitch Sunday on seven days’ rest, ESPN noted.
Padres Exit After A Close Series
Milwaukee beat San Diego 3-1 at Petco Park on Wednesday. Garrett Mitchell’s eighth-inning catch at the wall robbed Manny Machado of a potential game-tying homer, after Mitchell had tripled and scored the go-ahead run in the fifth. The Padres stayed alive Tuesday with a 4-3 win in Game 3, but three of the four games were decided by one run and the Brewers outscored them 13-10.
With the Padres out, the Dodgers are the last California team left in the postseason. California has not legalized sports betting, which leaves gambling in California without a licensed market for the series.
NLCS Opens Sunday At American Family Field
Games 1 and 2 are Sunday, Oct. 11, and Monday, Oct. 12, in Milwaukee. Games 3 and 4 follow Wednesday, Oct. 14, and Thursday, Oct. 15, at Dodger Stadium, with Game 5 on Friday, Oct. 16, if needed. Games 6 and 7, if needed, are Oct. 18 and 19 in Milwaukee.