- The San Francisco 49ers shortened from +475 to +400 to win the NFC, matching the Los Angeles Rams, who drifted from +350 a day earlier.
- San Francisco is 3-0 and leads the NFL with 0.26 offensive EPA per play, while the 1-2 Rams rank 22nd at -0.04.
- The Seattle Seahawks are third at +475 after a two-day swing from +450 to +575 and back, while the Philadelphia Eagles lengthened from +700 to +900.
- The 49ers are 2.5-point home favorites against the Denver Broncos on Sunday, and the Rams are 3-point favorites at Philadelphia.
SAN FRANCISCO – The San Francisco 49ers’ NFC championship odds shortened from +475 to +400, matching the Los Angeles Rams at the top of the conference board a day after the Rams drifted from +350 to +400. The move follows a 3-0 start that includes a 27-7 rout of those same Rams in Week 1.
Same Price, Opposite Starts
San Francisco improved to 3-0 on Sunday with a 36-30 win over Arizona, two games ahead of the Rams in the NFC West. Los Angeles fell to 1-2 the same day with a 30-26 loss at Denver, following a 28-6 win over the New York Giants in Week 2 and a 27-7 opening loss to San Francisco in Melbourne, Australia. The teams meet again Dec. 13.
The Rams’ price carries July’s expectations more than September’s results. Los Angeles opened as Super Bowl favorites and still sits second on that board behind the Buffalo Bills, with the 49ers tied for third. Both clubs at the top of the NFC board play in California, where gambling in California still does not include a licensed sportsbook, so neither price can be bet at a regulated book in state.
| Team | NFC Championship Odds | Super Bowl Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | +400 | +675 |
| San Francisco 49ers | +400 | +900 |
| Seattle Seahawks | +475 | +1000 |
| Detroit Lions | +900 | +1800 |
| Minnesota Vikings | +900 | +2400 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | +900 | +1600 |
| Chicago Bears | +1200 | +2400 |
| Dallas Cowboys | +1600 | +2800 |
The Efficiency Numbers Favor San Francisco
San Francisco’s offense leads the NFL at 0.26 EPA per play and a 56.8% success rate through three games, against a baseline of roughly 0.05 to 0.15 for a good offense and about 45% for an average one. The defense is the soft spot, allowing 0.01 EPA per play, 17th in the league and close to average.
The Rams sit the other way, with an offense that ranks 22nd at -0.04 EPA per play and 18th at a 44.9% success rate, and a defense that is tied for 11th at -0.03 allowed.
On those numbers the tie rests on Los Angeles’ preseason standing, while San Francisco’s price has the record, the head-to-head result and the top-ranked offense behind it.
The sample is short. A team’s EPA usually needs four to six games to settle, and San Francisco’s figures include an 82-yard first-quarter touchdown to Deebo Samuel on a hook-and-ladder play, one of four touchdown passes Brock Purdy threw Sunday.
Seattle And Philadelphia Sit Either Side
The Seattle Seahawks are third on the board at 2-1 after a 33-31 loss at Washington on Sunday. Seattle’s price made a two-day round trip from +450 to +575 and back to +475. Their defense is what supports that price, ranking fourth in EPA allowed at -0.08 per play and second in success rate allowed at 40.4%.
The Philadelphia Eagles lengthened after a 27-7 loss at Chicago on Monday night dropped them to 2-1, and their offense ranks 27th in success rate at 42.9%.
Week 4 Tests The Tie
San Francisco hosts the team that just beat the Rams. The Denver Broncos rank 23rd in offensive EPA per play at -0.05 and 16th in defensive EPA allowed at 0.01, so the short spread leans on the 49ers’ offense holding up. The 2.5-point spread and 48.5 total work out to roughly 25.5 points for San Francisco and 23 for Denver, a pace both teams beat in Week 3, when the 49ers scored 36 and the Broncos 30.
| Game | Spread | Moneyline Odds | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers | 49ers -2.5 (-115) | 49ers -145, Broncos +125 | 48.5 |
| Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles | Rams -3 (-105) | Rams -165, Eagles +140 | 43 |
| Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks | Seahawks -7 (-120) | Seahawks -340, Chargers +270 | 42.5 |
ESPN’s injury report lists receivers Ricky Pearsall, De’Zhaun Stribling and Demarcus Robinson on injured reserve, so San Francisco played Sunday without all three, and shows left tackle Trent Williams leaving that game with a neck injury.
Rams at Philadelphia kicks off at 1 p.m. ET on FOX and Denver at San Francisco at 4:25 p.m. ET on CBS, with the 49ers and Rams meeting again Dec. 13.