- San Francisco is +3.5 (-120) on the spread and +155 on the moneyline, with the total at 46.
- A three-point Seattle win cashes San Francisco at +3.5 but pushes at +3, the most common margin in the NFL.
- Bosa and Thompson did not practice Wednesday or Thursday, and Kyle Shanahan said both are not expected back this week.
- A Seattle win ties the NFC West at 4-1, and a San Francisco win leaves the 49ers at least two games clear.
SEATTLE – The unbeaten San Francisco 49ers are 3.5-point road underdogs at the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday, with defensive linemen Nick Bosa and James Thompson Jr. not expected to play. Kickoff at Lumen Field is 4:25 p.m. ET on FOX.
The Spread Discounts A Short-Handed Defense
San Francisco is 4-0 with a plus-58 point differential, and its offense leads the NFL at 0.24 EPA per play, well above the 0.05 to 0.15 that marks a good unit. Seattle is 3-1 at plus-32, and its defense is third in the league at minus-0.07 EPA allowed per play, where negative is the good side.
The market still makes Seattle the favorite, and the injury list is the most visible reason. Bosa (knee, calf) and Thompson (ankle) sat out practice Wednesday and Thursday, according to the team’s reports, and Shanahan said Monday they are not expected to return this week.
Both missed the last two games, wins over Arizona and Denver, but San Francisco’s defense ranks 18th in EPA allowed at 0.02, a shade worse than average. Seattle has its own gap, with defensive lineman Leonard Williams (ankle) held out of Thursday’s practice, according to the Seahawks.
The Hook Between 3.5 And 3
| Team | Spread | Moneyline Odds | Implies |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | +3.5 (-120) or +3 (+105) | +155 | 39.2% |
| Seattle Seahawks | -3.5 (+100) or -3 (-125) | -180 | 64.3% |
Seattle is -3.5 at the widest number and -3 at the shortest, so a field-goal Seattle win cashes the 49ers at +3.5 and pushes at +3.
The spread and the total of 46 work out to roughly 25-21 for Seattle, which would hold San Francisco about nine points under the 30.5 it averages.
The 49ers are California’s team, but gambling in California still has no licensed sportsbook, so the price is a read on the market rather than an in-state bet.
A Seattle Win Levels The NFC West
The 49ers lead the division at 4-0, a game ahead of 3-1 Seattle, with the Los Angeles Rams at 2-2 and the Arizona Cardinals at 1-3. A Seattle win would put the 49ers and Seahawks at 4-1, with Seattle holding the head-to-head tiebreaker until the rematch Nov. 29 at Levi’s Stadium. A San Francisco win would make it 5-0 against 3-2 and leave the 49ers at least two games clear of every rival.
San Francisco Slips To +425 In The NFC Title Odds
| Team | NFC Title Odds | Implies |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | +350 | 22.2% |
| San Francisco 49ers | +425 | 19.0% |
| Seattle Seahawks | +475 | 17.4% |
San Francisco and Los Angeles were tied at +350 before the latest update, both having shortened from +400 at the start of the month, and Seattle has lengthened from +450.
That prices a 4-0 team with the league’s top offense behind a 2-2 team it beat 27-7 in Week 1, one whose offense ranks 26th at minus-0.05 EPA per play. The Rams host the Buffalo Bills at 8:15 p.m. ET Monday.